Posts tagged ‘RMB 人民幣’

RenminbiLots of recent news around CNY FX Rate breaking new highs!  Latest CNY to HKD FX rate is at 1.26!

Given the strong correlation between HSI and CNY FX rate strengthening, this may be a good signal!

For stocks that have large, stable earning streams based in CNY, the stock price may become more interesting soon!

Looking into the HSI constituents, there are various Chinese Banks and Insurance companies that fit this category.  Energy stocks such as PETROCHINA 中國石油股份 (00857.HK) and CNOOC 中國海洋石油 (00883.HK) look interesting given their company size and consistent cash flow generation capabilities!

Link to CNY FX rate news:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2013/04/china-yuan-project-at-60-to-us-dollar.html

 

– Mr. Alpha

Image Source: http://www.livetradingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/chinese-money.jpg

CNY HKD FX rateThe graph of CNY / HKD Foreign Exchange rate shows an interesting correlation with the Hang Seng Index returns.  The fundamental basis seems to be that if CNY strengthens against HKD, since most large companies have exposure to revenues in China and that their financials are priced in CNY, the HSI should move in a similar trend as the CNY / HKD Fx rate.  We see the bottoming out of HSI at about 18,386 which corresponds to a CNY Fx rate of about 1.216.  The graph captures the period between Feb 2012 to now.

The current HSI is at 23,092 and CNY Fx rate is at 1.2475 (Details quoted from Yahoo HK Financials)

Mind you CNY is still a controlled currency, and its liberalization is expected to be gradual.

Perhaps picking out the index names with a higher Sharpe ratio may be an interesting list.

I’d like to end with one of my favourite quotes by Sir John Templeton, who is widely known as the “Dean of Value investing”:

 

“To buy when others are despondently selling, and to sell when others are avidly buying, requires the greatest of fortitude and pays the greatest ultimate reward.”

 

– Mr. Alpha

A股經過之前一輪急速反彈後,在假期前回軟。截至2013年1月10日,X安碩A50中國 (02823.HK) 的沽空比率 (沽空成交額除以總成交額) 比上一個月明顯上升,由15.8%升至21%,而南方A50 (02822.HK) 的每月沽空比率則由17.3%升至23.1%。有人在這階段開始放空亦十分合理。

HK2822 HK2823 ss_historical_chart 2012-2013

南方A50 (02822.HK) 和 X安碩A50中國 (02823.HK) 的每月沽空比率 (截至2013年1月10日)

 

 

 

 

 

 

而香港背靠祖國,A股與港股的關係越來越密切,港股亦漸漸跟著中國內地股市走。從下圖可見,於港交所主板上市的相關中國股份 (H股和紅籌股) 的市值,佔市場的總市值近一半。可想而知,內地對香港的影響有多大。董建華曾講過「香港好,國家好,國家好,香港更好」,筆者認為至少後半句套用在股市上該是對的。

China Stocks HKEx Market Shares

截至2012年,於港交所主板上市的相關中國股份市值佔市場總值之百分比

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

再看看匯價,下圖顯示直至2012年年底的人民幣兌港元匯價與恆生指數作比較,似乎人民幣牽引著港股的去向,上半年下跌,下半年上升,兩者不無關係。近期人民幣屢創新高,兌港元再度挑戰1.25水平。加上美元兌港元仍然挨近強方兌換保證的7.75,資金繼續留港炒作,對港股是否持續有利好的啟示?

直至2012年年底的人民幣兌港元匯價 vs 恆生指數

直至2012年年底的人民幣兌港元匯價 vs 恆生指數

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-Mr. Alpha