Posts tagged ‘Fear 恐慌’

Olympus Has FallenA lot of fear in the markets with the recent news on possible outbreak of Avian Flu and intense situation in North Korea.  Mind you, the recent movie “Olympus Has Fallen” describes a possible scenario which North Korea may pursue.  Of course, the movie has a lot of areas that is quite unreasonable, but for an action packed movie, it does its job!

With all this fear in the markets after seeing the drop of 600+ points in the HSI last Friday, it maybe time for some low beta stocks!

Even with the stock picking skills, it is much much harder to outperform during down trending markets.  You can sow the seeds of future success, but you need to be patient.  Perhaps when markets turn upwards, it may be time for high beta stocks then!

Stock Last C. Price Adjusted Beta
HK2 66.95 0.38
HK3 22.4 0.66
HK6 73.35 0.37

If you have formed an idea of a price you would like to buy for example, setting a limit order is often wise but requires much much more patience.

Picture from the below link:

http://inthemouthofdorkness.blogspot.hk/2013/01/im-best-hope-youve-got-olympus-has.html

– Mr. Alpha

德國投機大師安德烈.科斯托蘭尼 (André Kostolany) 曾經說過,股市的趨勢是上升還是下跌,主要基於兩大因素:資金心理

資金猶如呼吸的氧氣或引擎的汽油般重要,即使市場上有甚麼利好消息,股票估值有多吸引,沒有資金都不能使行情大幅上漲。

而另一方面,倘若大眾對未來的金融及經濟前景感到悲觀,不看好股市,即使大家持有大量現金也不會用作投資,甚至會選擇把股票沽出。故此,簡單的供求理論可解釋為何這種情況不能使行情上漲。

假如這兩個因素同時是正面的,即資金充裕+樂觀心態,行情便會明顯上漲,反之亦然。但如果只有一個因素呈正面,而另一個因素是負面的話,那就要看那個因素佔上風,造成略為上漲或略為下跌之格局。

資金反映了投資者的能力 (Ability),而心理則代表投資者的意願 (Willingness)。孟子所說的「不能」和「不為」就是指缺乏了這兩樣東西。

我們並不能獨立地看這兩個因素,尤其當隨著時間增長,資金因素會漸漸影響著心理因素。第一批資金買進股票市場,令指數開始上漲。而一眾股評人及分析員會設法解釋行情上漲的原因,報導改變了群眾的心理,使他們對股市產生憧憬,繼而踴躍地投資。

USD/HKD vs HSI Chart 2012

直至2012年年底,美元兌港元與恆生指數之比較

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

就以2012年下半年的港股為例,從圖中可見,恆指因歐債危機的陰霾而跌至6月4日的18185點。當時有不少評論指恆指會繼續下跌,大家亦顯得人心惶惶,不敢貿然入市。與此同時港匯由第二季起開始轉強,此跡象顯示不斷有資金流入本港,但礙於心理因素,當時的大市成交額一般只有400多億。而指數於6月4日起見底回升,有資金不斷入市,節節上升的指數,以及股評人開始轉口風,分析員開始轉軚,發放好消息。投資者開始失去戒心,基金亦要追回報,不甘後人,紛紛入市,炒個不亦樂乎!

現在的大市成交額達800億,比大半年前多出近倍。股市變得熾熱,造淡者節節敗退,內地又有「港股直通車」等利好消息出台。沒有人能夠估計恆指會上升的頂部,但我們應密切留意本文所提及的兩大因素有何異樣,再作考慮。

 

– Mr. Alpha

QE3早前,在《金價蓄勢待發》裡己經提到現貨黃金價格會爆大單邊,如果是向上的話,主要會由量化寬鬆措施所帶動。昨天,美國聯儲局終於宣佈推行「萬眾期待」的第三輪量化寬鬆措施QE3,會每月用400億美元不斷買入不動產抵押貸款證券 (MBS, Mortgage Backed Securities),直至就業市場情況有改善為止。此舉引發金價大幅上升,現貨金直逼每盎司1780美元。消息亦帶動了環球股票市場。投資者都怕留著現金會大幅貶值,紛紛恐慌性買入,喪炒起來!

同時,美國聯儲局維持低息政策至2015年中,長期的低息環境,容易形成資產泡沫,導致惡性通漲。QE 其實只是把問題拖延下去,並會把雪球越滾越大,波及全球的經濟。首當其衝的會是中國,美元價格下跌會令大量資金湧入中國,變相是給人民幣帶來升值的壓力,而另一方面又要顧及到國內高通漲的問題,實是弊多於利。

 

QE3的消息公佈後,一眾金礦股股價大幅上揚:

股票 2012年9月14日的收市價
ZHAOJIN MINING 招金礦業 (01818.HK) 13.38  1.800  ( 15.54%)
ZIJIN MINING 紫金礦業 (02899.HK) 3.04  0.310  ( 11.36%)
LINGBAO GOLD 靈寶黃金 (03330.HK) 3.69  0.340  ( 10.15%)

 

Mr. Alpha

 

(Image Source:
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02338/dollarprint_2338984b.jpg)

What to do?” ‘And language – the replacement of objects with symbols – has another big downside for us humans.  The Greek philosopher Epictetus recognized this two thousand years ago when he wrote: “What disturbs and alarms man are not the things but his opinion and fancies about the things.”…’

‘… The solution we came up with was to pick on one particular emotion for which we know we have substantive data.’

‘So which one have you picked?’

‘Fear.’

‘… The rise in market volatility, in our opinion, is a function of digitalisation, which is exaggerating human mood swings by the unprecedented dissemination of information via the internet…’

‘…So VIX was our starting point.  It’s given us a whole bunch of useful data going back to 1993… In the early days it also gave us the name for our prototype algorithm VIXAL-1…’

‘In our metrics, optimism can be measured as anything from an absence of fear to a reaction against fear.  Bear in mind that fear doesn’t just mean a broad market panic and a flight to safety.  There is also what we call a “clinging” effect, when a stock is held in defiance of reason, and an “adrenalin” effect, when a stock rises strongly in value…’

‘Is this algorithm already operational?’

‘Off the top of my head, VIXAL-2 made twelve million dollars in its six months trading period.  VIXAL-3 made one hundred and eighteen million.  As of last night, VIXAL-4 was up about seventy-nine-point-seven million.’

‘I thought you said it had only been running a week?”

‘I did.”

‘That means,… that on a ten-billion dollar fund, you’re looking at making a profit of four-point-one-four-billion a year.’ ”

 

Electrifying!!  All the above is quoted from the book by Robert Harris named “The Fear Index”.

Picture is from “The Crude Oil Trader“.

 

– Mr. Alpha