市場不斷憂慮美國經濟增長加快,促使聯儲局退市,美債孳息率近期被抽高,十年期國庫債券孳息率升逾2.8%,顯示大量資金流出債市。

10-Year Treasury Note Yield 十年期國庫債券孳息率

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

同時,有跡象顯示資金開始從亞洲新興市場流走。以印尼為例,雅加達證交綜合指數(JCI)在過去兩天下跌超過一成。而且從下圖可見,印尼盾近月一直弱勢。

INR/HKD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

泰國泰銖(THB)、菲律賓比索(PHP)及馬來西亞令吉(MYR)也有相類似情況,令港股亦變得波動起來。

THB/HKD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PHP/HKD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MYR/HKD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

– Mr. Alpha

 

    

Sir John TempletonPerformance from last week on the our mentioned names is unlikely to be sustainable every week going forward!

We are going to follow Grandma’s rule, which is “eat your carrots first!”.  We will look at how the 5 names mentioned last week from worst to best:

 

Stock Closing Price (8/9) Last Closing Price (8/16) % chg
HK2777 12.84 13 +1.2%
HK1088 23.35 24.85 +6.4%
HK323 1.98 2.11 +6.6%
HK1398 4.97 5.31 +6.8%
HK1138 3.51 3.99 +13.7%

 

All positives which is good!  The non-index names (HK323 and HK1138) performed better than I expected.

Do remember that you didn’t have to pay a dime for the above picks!  That’s probably a better sign because unless our track record is stellar, people are going to be doubtful when a stranger suggest they should part way with their money. 🙂

Many of these names are being widely publicized by the local media, which can be both good and bad.  My general rule-of-thumb is that the public is usually widely attracted by the success stories published in the media, which is turn fuels more buying into those names.  Repeated publicity maybe a sign to sell.

HK1138 and HK1088 are having their financial results announced this coming week.

 

– Mr. Alpha

 

Picture from link: http://channerinvestment.com/blog/2009/11/warren-buffett-has-done-it-again/

    

Sir John Templeton“To buy when others are despondently selling, and to sell when others are avidly buying, requires the greatest of fortitiude, and pays the greatest ultimate reward.” – Sir John Templeton

 

I would like to re-visit this quote, and this about which industries are being despondently sold in the current market.  Which are the industries and investors do not want to touch with a 10 foot pole?

 

Shipping Industry (CHINA SHIP DEV 中海發展股份 (01138.HK))

Steel Industry (MAANSHAN IRON 馬鞍山鋼鐵股份 (00323.HK))

Coal Industry (CHINA SHENHUA 中國神華 (01088.HK))

China Real Estate (R&F PROPERTIES 富力地產 (02777.HK))

China Bank Industry (ICBC 工商銀行 (01398.HK))

 

The first 2 companies are smaller, and probably more risky, but the bottom 3 is much more established and have a lower risk of downside volatility.  By definition, stocks can only be depressed if people are selling.  There is no other reason why a stock keeps dropping.

If the quality of the company is good, then perhaps fortitude is required to execute on the buying opportunity!

– Mr. Alpha

 

Picture from link: http://channerinvestment.com/blog/2009/11/warren-buffett-has-done-it-again/

    

Master ChefI have recently watched the exciting US series of MasterChef, where a bunch of untrained home cooks had to compete in various cooking challenges to compete for a prize of USD 250,000.  The obvious part is to watch fantastic cooking demonstrated before your eyes, and how each contestant fights for the next spot in the challenge.  The best meat of each episode of course, is seeing the judges, Mr. Gordon Ramsay, Mr. Joe Bastianich, and Mr. Graham Elliot yell at the contestants when they mess up their dishes.  These are some of the best chefs in the world, and they have earned their right to have exceptionally high standards in terms of cooking skills required.

After all, everyone in the series is competing to be America’s MasterChef.  They should be able to take some heat from the judges. 🙂

But what this makes me think is that, actually, cooking and investing have a lot in common.  What I would like to drive at, is that our cooking / eating habits, should be more in line with how we invest.

When I look to put food in my mouth, I would never think for a second to put food that is uncooked (great sashimi an exception), or meat that wasn’t handled properly.  There are arguably many many stocks which are a bit like a rotten piece of chicken (likely with flies hovering all around).  You wouldn’t think of putting that in front of a plate, right?

From the MasterChef episodes, I see that the contestants got to work with the juiciest cuts of steak and amazing varieties of seafood.  The lobsters and scallops are always so attractive and amazing!

Makes me think that whenever the contestants work with the best materials to cook with, they can’t really go wrong!  Even if you were a really bad cook, you could come up with an OK dish!

If I had to pick 5 stocks which I think are of good quality and they are in consecutive numbers, 0001.HK to 0005.HK would do! 🙂  Although 0005.HK seems to be on track from less write offs and a strong Asia presence, I do worry whether the company has grown too big, and how a company of its size can prevent taking excessive risk again like they did during the Subprime crisis.

I mean, they took so much risk that they had to do a rights offering at close to 33 HKD per share just to be in line with capital requirements!  Then again, those who believed in the franchise and held onto the shares from the rights did quite well!

Like my mom used to tell me all the time, “don’t put all that junk food in your mouth”!

Land mines are for people who haven’t done their homework to step on, not for you to eat!

 

– Mr. Alpha

 

    

RenminbiLots of recent news around CNY FX Rate breaking new highs!  Latest CNY to HKD FX rate is at 1.26!

Given the strong correlation between HSI and CNY FX rate strengthening, this may be a good signal!

For stocks that have large, stable earning streams based in CNY, the stock price may become more interesting soon!

Looking into the HSI constituents, there are various Chinese Banks and Insurance companies that fit this category.  Energy stocks such as PETROCHINA 中國石油股份 (00857.HK) and CNOOC 中國海洋石油 (00883.HK) look interesting given their company size and consistent cash flow generation capabilities!

Link to CNY FX rate news:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2013/04/china-yuan-project-at-60-to-us-dollar.html

 

– Mr. Alpha

Image Source: http://www.livetradingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/chinese-money.jpg

    

中視金橋 (00623.HK) 於4月18日早上有好幾宗交易偏離現價,股價之後回順。疑似有人落錯了盤,當然也不排除有人突然非常看好該股,不問價以市價盤掃入股票。

HK623 中視金橋 2013-04-18 Day Chart

 

– Mr. Alpha

    

Spot Gold Chart 1100-Day History 2013-04-15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

最近金價恐慌性大幅下跌,徹底地打破了大家一直以來對金價會持續上升的憧憬。由索羅斯沽SPDR黃金信託基金 (SPDR Gold Trust),到塞浦路斯要沽金救國的催化劑,加上擔心美國聯儲局或會退市及美國將進入加息週期的陰霾,使金價走勢一浪低於一浪,步入了熊市。

同樣,用來炒金價預期的金礦股亦嗅到金價去向,自從去年9月美國聯儲局宣布第三輪量化寬鬆措施 (QE3) 後,金礦股的股價就已見了頂,紫金礦業 (02899.HK)招金礦業 (01818.HK) 這對孖寶兄弟就開始由高原滾落低窪地帶。以紫金為例,股價由52週最高的$3.3下跌至今天的$2.33,跌幅近三成。

 

那麼,金價還要跌多少?

粗略地用2008年底的金價(約每盎司$700)及2011年的高位(約每盎司$1900)以黃金比率計算,金價最低可達$1100水平:

支持位 (弱):$1900 – ($1900 – $700) * 0.382 = $1442
支持位 (中):$1900 – ($1900 – $700) * 0.5 = $1300
支持位 (強):$1900 – ($1900 – $700) * 0.618 = $1158

 

金價斬倉式的下跌,或多或少會對股市構成負面影響。恆指今天失守22000,預期21000左右會有支持。

 

– Mr. Alpha

    

Alpha logo“I was just talking to a young banker who went home to tell his wife that he would not be getting a bonus this year. The banker told his wife she would have to learn to cook so they could fire the chef.

The wife responded, ‘Well, I guess you’ll have to learn to make love so we can fire the gardener, too.'”  – Warren Buffett

In Hong Kong, if you happen to have a gardener AND a chef, you are probably quite well off already and can all 4 of you have some fun behind closed doors! 🙂

– Mr. Alpha

    

Olympus Has FallenA lot of fear in the markets with the recent news on possible outbreak of Avian Flu and intense situation in North Korea.  Mind you, the recent movie “Olympus Has Fallen” describes a possible scenario which North Korea may pursue.  Of course, the movie has a lot of areas that is quite unreasonable, but for an action packed movie, it does its job!

With all this fear in the markets after seeing the drop of 600+ points in the HSI last Friday, it maybe time for some low beta stocks!

Even with the stock picking skills, it is much much harder to outperform during down trending markets.  You can sow the seeds of future success, but you need to be patient.  Perhaps when markets turn upwards, it may be time for high beta stocks then!

Stock Last C. Price Adjusted Beta
HK2 66.95 0.38
HK3 22.4 0.66
HK6 73.35 0.37

If you have formed an idea of a price you would like to buy for example, setting a limit order is often wise but requires much much more patience.

Picture from the below link:

http://inthemouthofdorkness.blogspot.hk/2013/01/im-best-hope-youve-got-olympus-has.html

– Mr. Alpha

    

IAlpha Investments have always liked to read quotes from the Greats with diverse backgrounds to identify pockets of wisdom.  Hope you all find the quote series interesting!

“Ain’t only three things to gamblin’: knowing the 60/40 end of a proposition, money management, and knowing yourself.” To know the “60/40″ end of a proposition implies identifying when the odds are in your favor. The second part is to know money management, or the appropriate amount to commit to your bet.  Finally, you must know yourself, or how you react to certain situations, including adverse or challenging circumstances.”  -Walter Pearson

Wiki bio on Mr. Pearson below!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puggy_Pearson

– Mr. Alpha